Posts Tagged ‘Adaptation’
Over the past couple of weeks Eastern Australia has been racked by record flooding events and it has been hard not to get swept up in the emotion and momentum. With continuous media coverage we’ve seen more rivers peak, more levees break, more towns inundated and swarms of people aiding the recovery effort.
Looking beyond the human element and the tragedy of lives and livelihoods lost, we have seen multiple severe rainfall events wreak havoc on our infrastructure and economies. With the recovery expected to cost over $30 billion dollars and take years to complete, I hope we can learn from this and mitigate any future such events, not only in Eastern Australia, but also here in WA and Perth, despite the fact that floods are rarely seen here.
Depending on which newspapers you read or the blogs you follow, there are articles attributing the events in Eastern Australia to climate change, the La Niña weather patterns or even just the 1 in 100 year event that was bound to happen sooner or later. In general, there appears to be a consensus that there is a combination of these factors. In the medium term, we can expect El Niño and La Niña to signal periods of low and heavy rainfall across differing regions of Australia. In the longer term, it appears to be accepted that our climate is changing and we should expect these weather extremes more frequently.
Planning for these events should be a risk management exercise. At Greensense, it is a part of what we call Climate Change Adaptation. It is a process of considering a possible risk, the impacts and consequences of that risk occuring and how likely it is to happen. At the end of such an exercise, a business, community or government body should understand how resilient or vulnerable they are to various risks and should plan and adapt behaviours accordingly.
The difference between a standard risk assessment and a climate change risk assessment is that standard risk assessments consider risks under the current climate status quo. On the other hand, a climate change risk assessment takes into consideration forecast changes to climate such as increasing sea levels and changes to rainfall patterns. Often the likelihood and consequence of an event occurring may be altered in differing climate scenarios, and therefore the resulting action plan to address any vulnerabilities may be different under a climate change risk assessment.
Having watched the Eastern Australian floods play out over the last few weeks and knowing the recovery effort will be extensive, I would urge all businesses, organisations and government bodies to review their risk management processes and ensure that where you are evaluating a risk, sufficient consideration has been given to our changing climate.
If you are in south-west WA, where we are more accustomed to bushfires and storm surges, don’t forget to give consideration to floods. Following the events in the East, a quick look at Perth’s flood history shows a handful of serious flooding events on the Swan River in 1926, 1934, 1945 and 1963 with smaller, localised floods more recently. Despite the fact we’ve seen very little in the way of floods in Perth’s recent history, the risk is real and should be recognised.
While our goal is to try and mitigate the worst affects of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, we are already committed to a changed climate. This is why adaptation should be part of your climate change strategy.
The direct impacts of climate change include increased temperature, shifts in rainfall patterns, increased evaporation, rising sea levels, more weather extremes and bushfires.
Adaptation is about planning for these changes and understanding what they mean for our way of life. A common example is the house on the beach. With rising sea levels and more severe weather extremes, storm surges may wash away the beach and potentially the foundations, leading to damage to property or in the worse case, collapse. Adaptation is about deciding how to deal with this, and is not necessarily an easy task. In Western Australia the government has forecast that around 20,000 buildings are at risk of inundation. One response to this risk is for local governments to refuse planning approval without a minimum set back from the beach (see this previous blog).
However, we don’t all live on the beach, and when it isn’t your house, it can be easier to ignore. So what about other impacts? For example, climate change can improve conditions for invasive pest species, which can wipe out native species and may have a numerous impacts on our way of life and economy (see this YouTube video). Increased storm severity is likely to lead to more frequent damage to property (both private and public), which may lead to increased insurance expenses. Reduced rainfall, increased temperatures and increased evaporation may reduce our water supplies, which in turn will increase the cost of water and we may seesome open space areas are no longer watered, thus affecting our recreational lifestyles.
These changes to our climate have the potential to impact many aspects of our lifestyle and our businesses, and they often cause a chain reaction where one change leads to another and so on. Adaptation starts off with a risk assessment approach: identifying and prioritising the climate change risks specific to your area. Armed with this knowledge you can target your Adaptation Strategy to address key risks first and ensure sufficient resources are allocated to deal with them.
Greensense have worked with a number of clients to assist with identifying climate change risks, developing action plans, developing policies and strategies and consulting with the community. If you feel your organisation is not equipped to deal with the likely effects of climate change, we can help.
